Sometimes it is fun to look at a what if storyline at the midway point of the season. And in 2026 nothing gets better than the idea of Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong somehow ending up as co-MVPs in the National League. It sounds wild, almost impossible, but it’s just plausible enough to make for an intriguing thought experiment as the summer plays out.
The historical context matters. In the entire history of the MVP award, only one race has ever ended in a tie. That was the 1979 NL vote, when Willie Stargell and Keith Hernandez finished with identical point totals and were both awarded the hardware. If Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong were to share the award this year, it would be the first co-MVP in 47 years, instantly turning this season into one of those trivia-answer campaigns fans talk about for decades.
Right now, though, this isn’t just fan fiction. Ohtani is very firmly the favorite. Sportsbooks have had him as a heavy, sometimes overwhelming choice for NL MVP since before Opening Day, reflecting the assumption that if he’s healthy, the award is basically his to lose. MLB.com’s midseason MVP poll echoed that sentiment, with Ohtani comfortably atop the NL ballot in a survey of 33 writers. That’s what happens when a guy puts up elite offensive numbers and front-of-the-rotation pitching in the same uniform, year after year.
And that’s the critical point, if Shohei Ohtani were not a two-way player, he may not even be in this conversation. His entire MVP aura is built on the fact that he provides star-level production on both sides of the ball in a way no one else in the league even attempts. As a hitter, he’s near the top of the NL in on-base percentage and OPS; as a pitcher, he runs a sub-2 ERA with strikeout totals you normally associate with Cy Young contenders. Strip away the pitching, and Ohtani is still great, but suddenly he looks more like one member of a crowded class of elite bats rather than a singular, era-defining force. It’s the dual role that creates the value gap that voters and oddsmakers can’t ignore.
That’s where Pete Crow-Armstrong enters the picture — definitely not as Ohtani’s mirror image, but as the kind of explosive, all-around position player who can sneak into the narrative and make the race interesting. Crow-Armstrong came into the year more as a breakout candidate than a locked-in star, but he’s quickly playing his way to the front page of the MVP discussion. He’s put up a strong blend of power, speed, and on-base ability. He already has 19 homers, nearly 20 stolen bases, and a batting average around the high-.260s/.270s range in 85+ games, plus impacts all over the box score.
He’s not just compiling quiet numbers, either. Crow-Armstrong has already banked signature moments, including at least one cycle and high-leverage performances in rivalry games that tend to stick in voters’ memories. MLB.com’s MVP poll had him sitting second behind Ohtani in the NL race, reflecting how quickly he’s climbed from nice young player into legitimate MVP ballot presence. For a Cubs team trying to re-establish itself as a perennial contender, his rise gives him that narrative-friendly franchise centerpiece aura that voters historically like.
So how do we get from Ohtani is a runaway favorite to co-MVP with Crow-Armstrong? We’d probably need Ohtani to keep doing Ohtani things — dominant hitting plus high-level pitching — without a catastrophic slump or injury. Crow-Armstrong, on the other hand, would have to continue accelerating, finishing with the kind of stat line that screams best position player in the league: 30+ homers, 40+ steals, elite center-field defense, and top-tier WAR on a Cubs team that secures a playoff spot.
Then there’s the voting dynamics. The only reason a tie happened in 1979 is because the ballots split evenly; Stargell had a compelling leadership narrative on a championship team, while Hernandez had the superior across-the-board numbers. A similar fault line could conceivably form here: some voters might tilt toward Ohtani’s historic two-way uniqueness, while others emphasize Crow-Armstrong’s everyday positional value, defensive range, and maybe a heavier workload if Ohtani ever has his innings managed on the mound.
Layer in the odds, and you see how unlikely a tie would be, but also why the conversation is fun. Futures markets suggest Ohtani is far ahead of the NL pack, with Crow-Armstrong more in the credible challenger tier than the inner circle, yet still among the listed candidates before the season and as his breakout unfolded. MLB polling agrees: Ohtani in his own category, Crow-Armstrong leading the chase group if he sustains his surge. But MVP races are stories as much as they are spreadsheets. If Crow-Armstrong’s season keeps escalating, and if voters start to debate just how much weight to put on Ohtani’s pitching versus his hitting, the gap between them could narrow just enough to set up something strange.
Here’s the thing, folks: A tie for NL MVP is a long shot — modern voting tends to sort itself out as the season progresses. But the fact that both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong can plausibly live at the top of MVP ballots at the same time, for completely different reasons, is exactly what makes this season so compelling. One is redefining what it means to be a player by excelling on the mound and at the plate; the other is showing how a dynamic center fielder with impact in every phase can crash the awards party.
With that . . . Even if they don’t end up as co-MVPs, watching those two trajectories collide all year is the kind of drama that reminds you why baseball awards races are worth following day to day.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them.