I’ve always subscribed to the somewhat proven theory that until you have a sample size of three any occurrence can be ascribed to chance. Mind you, we’re not talking statistical significance–any serious mathematician will insist that the absolute bare minimum size for any demographic cell to be worthy of dissection is 25. I’m not a mathematician, so my threshold is much smaller. Once is incidental, twice is coincidence; three or more is at least potentially a trend. Italics mine.
If one needs any proof that I’m not merely being overly cautious take a look at the NFL teams that made it to 3-0 yesterday. Two were pre-season chalk, each getting to that level rather unimpressively versus teams that are both winless and rudderless. And if you happened to have placed a trifecta bet at that time on the other three that have gotten to that level then you’re buying dinner because I’d strongly advise you to cash out while the getting is good.
A Minnesota Vikings team led by Kyler Murray was not envisioned by many to get three wins by Halloween let alone by the first day of October. Even the partisan VIKINGS WIRE’s Cole Smith was downright nonplussed:
The Minnesota Vikings escaped Raymond James Stadium with a 23-16 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. There were stretches (long stretches) of offensive ineptitude on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay may be able to chalk its issues up to a strong Minnesota defense, although the Vikings may not have as many excuses.
Minnesota managed 230 yards of offense, converting only 2-of-15 third-down attempts. Kyler Murray, who returned for his first start since suffering a concussion in the first quarter of the Vikings’ season opener, completed 15-of-29 passes for 168 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. But thanks to a special teams touchdown and six sacks, Minnesota won for the third straight game.
A similarly jaundiced reaction was offered by the NINERS WIRE’s equivalent, who goes by the semi-transparent byline Oliver G.:
The San Francisco 49ers built a 17-point third-quarter lead over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium, and they needed every bit of that cushion to escape with a 36-30 victory to move to 3-0 on the year
San Francisco got what it needed from Brock Purdy, who threw for 297 yards and four touchdowns, and Christian McCaffrey, who chipped in a rushing score. But the Cardinals refused to go away, riding 280 yards and two touchdowns from quarterback Jacoby Brissett to claw back within striking distance before San Francisco closed it out in the final minutes.
If there is reason to be truly giddy then look to their former Bay Area neighbors who have already equaled their 2025 win total–and without the help of their ballyhooed number one draft choice beyond being a clipboard holder. Per BLEACHER REPORT’s
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 for the first time since the 2021 NFL season. Kirk Cousins led the…Raiders to a perfect start with a 35-27 victory over Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints, throwing three touchdown passes in the win…The Raiders silenced the doubters with a fourth-quarter comeback, delivering a dominant 13-0 shutout, delivering on both sides of the ball.
But again–hardly convincing wins against teams with their own issues. Perhaps not as many as those remaining unbeatens dealt with. It’s hard to get truly excited about Kansas City, as the ASSOCIATED PRESS’ Alanis Thames cautioned:
The Chiefs didn’t win any trophies on Sunday, but they got to 3-0. And that was good enough.
Kenneth Walker III had a touchdown catch and rushed for a score, and (Patrick) Mahomes threw for 246 yards and two TDs to help the Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 24-10.
“Obviously we didn’t play to our standard that we would hold for ourselves,” Mahomes said. “But I thought we found a way to come together at the end of the game.”
The Chiefs entered averaging more than 450 yards and 32 points but struggled to pull away from the winless Dolphins, who were missing arguably their best player for much of the game after Pro Bowler De’Von Achane left with a knee injury on the opening drive.
But given how the Fins’ former chief nerd Mike McDaniel’s new employer is faring perhaps the Miami faithful can take solace that another fan base may be even smaller and despondent than theirs. Hey, AP’s supposedly human writer wasn’t even willing to accept a byline for this recap:
Buffalo Bills safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson didn’t miss a beat when asked if he’d ever been part of a win when his team commits five turnovers. “Yeah,” the ninth-year player said, his eyes widening while breaking into a big laugh. “Today.”
Gardner-Johnson’s interception of Justin Herbert’s pass intended for Marquez Valdes-Scantling at the goal line punctuated a defensive-driven win by bailing out Josh Allen’s sloppiness in a 24-16 victory over the winless Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.
“Teams like that, that ain’t really been to the top, they don’t know how to finish,” he said, referring to LA. “And we got the playmakers over here that know how to finish. So, no disrespect. Just that’s what it is.”
Tonight the Philadelphia Iggles have a chance to join this quintet as they escape the nor’easter with a trip to Chicago. A win against a 2025 playoff team might prove be significant when all is said and done but if it happens it will be against a third-string quarterback. Case Keenum hasn’t started an NFL game in nearly three years–not exactly a crucible. And if he does somehow find a way to lead Da Bears to victory Philly will be tied for first at 2-1 with the New York Giants–who got there with a water-logged escape of the winless Titans and earlier today traded for a third-string quarterback of their very own, J.J. McCarthy. The one who lost his attempted comeback gig to Kyler freaking Murray.
Yeah, Bird Nation. You may end the evening perfect. But I wouldn’t start humble-bragging about it.
Courage…
