We are officially into the last third of the NFL season, which means we will now be seeing the above graphic almost every time any story about game recaps or upcoming schedules hit between now and the first week of January. I’ve followed this pursuit religiously since childhood, if for no other reason then it prioritizes for me what games I should care about, especially in years when my fantasy teams are doing no better than any with New York in their name.
But unlike some of the more forgiving lists I’m seeing out there which refuse to officially eliminate anyone who has not yet been mathematically (a virtually impossibility in any season with five or six games left to play), I’m applying my own filter that borrows from my baseball obsession of using a cut-off point of six games within a playoff berth with a month-ish left. For my NFL list, I use a “Mendoza” line of no more than two games behind in the loss column. Anything beyond that, IMO, is sheer folly.
So here’s what my amended list looks like, using a baseline begun by PRO FOOTBALL TALK’s Michael David Smith earlier this morning:
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Detroit Lions (10-1): 1-game lead in the NFC North.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2): 2.5-game lead in the NFC East.
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5): Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Falcons and Cardinals.
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5): One-game lead in the NFC South.
WILD CARDS
5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2): Lost at home to the Lions.
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3): Lost at home to the Lions and Vikings.
7. Washington Commanders (7-5): Need to reverse their recent slide.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Arizona Cardinals (6-5): Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks was big.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6): Own the NFC record tiebreaker over the Rams.
10. Los Angeles Rams (5-6): Own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the 49ers.
11. San Francisco 49ers (5-6): Preseason NFC favorites are at risk of missing the playoffs.
12. New Orleans Saints (4-7): Two games out in the division
13. Chicago Bears (4-7): Deep in last place in the NFC North.
14. Dallas Cowboys (4-7): Thanksgiving against the Giants looks like a turkey.
Both the Bears and Cowboys play on Thanksgiving Day, which means there’s a chance they will quickly drop off, but a line in the sand is a line in the sand. Though if chalk bets hold and the Giants crap the bed as they have so often had on Turkey Day (they 0-2 in Dallas and haven’t won on the holiday anywhere in 42 years), the Cowboys can at least cling to the myth of playoff life for another few days, which will make their TV partners just a tad bit less disgruntled.
AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS
1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1): The reigning champs sit atop the conference.
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2): If they can catch the Chiefs in the standings, they’ll have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3): Beating the Ravens head to head was big.
4. Houston Texans (7-5): They’re not playing well, but they should win the AFC South by default.
WILD CARDS
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3): Big game coming Monday night.
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4): Big game coming Monday night.
7. Denver Broncos (7-5): Bo Nix has led them to a two-game lead in the wild card race.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
8. Miami Dolphins (5-6): With Tua Tagovailoa healthy, they play like playoff contenders.
9. Indianapolis Colts (5-7): Catching the Texans in the AFC South will be a long shot.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7): Probably need to run the table to get to the playoffs.
Sorry, Browns fans, for as inspiring as your Snow Bowl victory was last Thursday night, you’re in far too deep a hole to realistically believe it was anything more than a momentary blip on a truly lousy season. But then again, at least you’re not Jets fans.
There’s an awful lot of football still to be played, and a lot of it will be on a national stage. There’s a Black Friday game (albeit one featuring the 2-9 Raiders) on top of the Thanksgiving troika this week; and by Week 16 Saturday games will be added to the mix. And with flexing more rampant than ever (we’re even seeing a Broncos-Chargers game being moved to Thursday night to pacify those upstarts at Amazon), that will mean fewer quality choices on Sunday afternoons.
All the more reason that my somewhat truncated list, which at least rules out 25 per cent of the league at this writing, is an invaluable guide to saving yourself the pain of watching, let alone paying incrementally, to watch meaningless late-season football.
With that said, I’ll acknowledge both of my fantasy teams have winning records and currently are in playoff positions of their own. And yep, I’ve even got a stray Jet or Giant in the mix. But I’m more than content with just getting alerts. I don’t need to actually see how they do anything, nor do I need to see the size and attitude of the crowds that will be watching them.
Happy hunting, guys.
Courage…