Fair is foul and foul is fair. Day is night and night is day.
You don’t need to be a fan of Shakespeare to have such thoughts. You just have to be a fan of the NBA.
Five second round games have been played. Five road victories have occurred. Exactly how unlikely is that? Thankfully, the internet allows us to answer that intelligently:
SPORTSHANDLE provides the baseline for our calculations:
Since the 2013 playoffs 839 playoff games have been played on one of the team’s home courts. The home team won 509 of those games, a 60.67% winning percentage.
The site further notes this amendment with the specific series we are watching:
| Conference Semifinals | 63.64% |
|---|
So, Microsoft Copilot, for the benefit of those of us who crapped out in twelfth grade math, what were the odds against what we’ve seen so far?:
To calculate the odds for five consecutive wins with a 36% chance of winning individually, you can use the following approach:
- The probability of winning five times in a row is calculated as ( (0.36)^5 ).
- This results in approximately 0.0007776 or 0.07776% chance of winning five consecutive times2.
- Thus, the odds for five consecutive wins are quite low, reflecting the low individual probability of winning.
Oh, ya think? I’d love to see how many parlays were wagered on with these outcomes. I have a strong hunch one might not find even that minute proportion of winners.
THE ATHLETIC’s Chris Branch reflected the shock level of most of us in his PULSE newsletter this morning:
The second round is cooking. No home team has won a game. Even down to the minutiae, nothing has gone as expected. Teams who got long breaks to rest look lost. Teams with no rest look fresh. Nothing is normal.
Last night’s slate was the best we’ve had so far:
- In the late game, the Warriors outpaced the Timberwolves 99-88 in a contest that wasn’t as close as that 11-point margin suggests. And they did it largely without Steph Curry, who left the game in the first half with a hamstring injury. Minnesota scored just 31 points in the first half. Draymond Green hit four 3-pointers, Jimmy Butler and Buddy Hield were electric and Anthony Edwards — the prince who was promised — came out flat. Golden State 1, Minnesota 0.
- The earlier game was even more shocking. The top-seeded Cavaliers entered the game missing three key contributors and still opened up a massive early lead over the Pacers, who had already stolen Game 1 in Cleveland on Sunday. Donovan Mitchell had 48 points, but it wasn’t enough to stop Tyrese Haliburton, Mr. Overrated, from swiping a Game 2 win with what can only be conveyed in two GIFs.
This on the heels of two equally shocking endings to Monday’s games–yet another Aaron Gordon buzzer-beater for Denver to stun OKC, and the Knicks literally stealing a win in Boston thanks to the spirited play of Mikal Bridges. In both cases, these teams mounted furious comebacks in the fourth quarter to even get within striking distance of these results. And for the Thunder, who ousted Memphis with their own comeback from 29 down in the first round, this was a case of living and dying by the sword. Still more Shakespeare references.
Branch succinctly summed it up:
This is the first time in NBA history all road teams have won Game 1 in the second round.
Hence, the story that FRONT OFFICE SPORTS’ Colin Salao and David Rumsey led off their MEMO newsletter this morning with was perhaps even more unsurprising:
The first round of the postseason averaged 3.7 million viewers across ABC, ESPN, and TNT, up 6% from last year’s 3.5 million total, according to Nielsen. The total was driven, in part, by the 4.4 million average of the league’s eight-game opening weekend, which fell on the Easter holiday, the NBA’s most-watched opening weekend in 25 years and up 17% from last year.
ESPN platforms (ABC and ESPN) averaged 4.46 million viewers across 12 games, up 14% from last year. ABC led the way with 5.56 million viewers over six games, a 14% increase. The six games on ESPN were up 10%. These numbers mirror the regular season, when ABC was up 10% despite the full league national TV viewership declining by 2% due to declines in games on cable.
TNT averaged 3.3 million viewers across 25 first-round playoff games, a 3% increase from last year. That number was highlighted by Game 7 between the Warriors and Rockets on Sunday, which drew 6.6 million viewers, the most-watched first-round Game 7 on cable since 2009 (Bulls vs. Celtics).
The question now is whether the NBA can continue its momentum into the second round after LeBron James, Luka Dončić, and the Lakers were eliminated.
With results like this, and the likes of New York and San Francisco still very much in the mix, I’d be willing to put fairly decent odds on that happening, particularly given what we’ve already seen this week.
At least better than 0.07776%.
Courage…