Two races have yet to be figured out and baseball fans across the country find themselves on the edge of their seats. Game 162 of the regular season is typically a formality, but this year it carries the weight of playoff dreams for four teams locked in two nail-biting races that will determine who plays in October and who goes home empty-handed.
The drama couldn’t be more perfect: in the National League, the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets are deadlocked in a battle for the final wild card spot. Meanwhile, in the American League Central, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are tied atop the division standings, with the division title hanging in the balance. Both races feature teams that have overcome incredible odds and suffered devastating collapses to reach this climactic moment.
The Mets entered September feeling pretty good about their playoff chances. Just weeks ago, on September 5th, New York boasted an astronomical 96.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. But baseball has a cruel way of humbling even the most confident teams, and the Mets have watched that near-certainty crumble into a desperate final-day scenario where they need both a win and help from another team just to squeeze into October.
Standing in their way are the Cincinnati Reds, a franchise that hasn’t tasted playoff baseball in a full season since 2013. The Reds know something about heartbreak — their last playoff series victory dates all the way back to 1995. But they’ve put themselves in the driver’s seat heading into Sunday’s finale against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The mathematics are elegantly simple yet brutally unforgiving: both teams sit at 83-78, but Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker after winning the season series 4-2. This means the Reds control their own destiny. A win against Milwaukee, and they’re headed to Los Angeles to face the defending champion Dodgers in the Wild Card Series. Even a loss might be enough if the Mets stumble in Miami, but Cincinnati would prefer not to leave anything to chance.
For New York, the path is treacherous. The Mets must beat the Miami Marlins while simultaneously rooting for the Brewers to complete a sweep of the Reds. It’s a helpless feeling for any competitor — knowing your fate rests partially in the hands of another team.
The irony is unmistakable. The Reds, who were 15.5 games behind at one point earlier this season, find themselves one game away from their first playoff appearance in a complete season in over a decade. Meanwhile, the Mets, who seemed destined for October just three weeks ago, are facing the very real possibility of one of the most spectacular late-season collapses in recent memory.
If the National League wild card race is about heartbreak, the American League Central race is about one of the most remarkable comebacks in baseball history. The Cleveland Guardians were once trailing Detroit by a staggering 15.5 games. To put that in perspective, if Cleveland manages to complete this turnaround and win the division, it would represent the largest deficit overcome to claim a division title since divisional play began in 1969.
The Tigers seemed untouchable for most of the season, holding the best record in the American League and looking like a lock for their second consecutive playoff appearance. But baseball’s cruel mathematics caught up with them in the worst possible way. Since July 9th, Detroit has posted a dismal 26-37 record, watching their commanding lead evaporate as Cleveland got hot at precisely the right moment.
The Guardians’ surge has been nothing short of spectacular. From September 5th through September 22nd, they went an incredible 15-2, including a 10-game winning streak that completely flipped the division race on its head. Just weeks ago, Cleveland was below .500 and seemingly out of contention. Now they’re tied atop the division standings at 87-74 and hold the crucial tiebreaker advantage after winning the season series 8-5.
Both teams clinched playoff spots, ensuring October baseball regardless of Sunday’s outcome. Detroit secured their berth with a 2-1 victory over Boston, while Cleveland clinched in dramatic fashion with a walk-off hit-by-pitch with the bases loaded. But playoff positioning matters enormously, as the division winner earns better seeding and potentially a more favorable matchup.
What makes these races so compelling isn’t just the mathematical beauty of teams tied at the finish line — it’s the human stories of triumph and collapse. The Reds’ veteran closer Emilio Pagán captured the essence perfectly after Saturday’s victory: If you could have promised us this in spring training, I think everybody would sign up for it every year. As cool as it is to clinch ahead of time and kind of know where you’re at, to have every single game be this meaningful is a gift.
For Cincinnati, this represents a chance to break a 30-year drought of playoff series victories. The franchise has made the playoffs just four times since Great American Ball Park opened in 2003. The Tigers’ collapse has been equally dramatic from a human perspective. A team that dominated the American League for five months has watched their championship dreams nearly slip away due to a prolonged slump that would challenge any clubhouse’s mental fortitude.
All 30 Major League Baseball teams will take the field Sunday afternoon, ensuring no team gains a competitive advantage from knowing another game’s result before their first pitch. It’s a tradition that emphasizes the purity of competition — every team must play their game without knowing what’s happening elsewhere.
Here’s the thing, folks: What makes this years last regular season game so special in 2025 isn’t just that four teams’ seasons hang in the balance — it’s that each race tells a different story about baseball’s capacity for both heartbreak and redemption. The Mets face the specter of an epic collapse. The Reds chase their first meaningful October in over a decade. The Tigers try to avoid completing one of the most devastating late-season meltdowns in franchise history. The Guardians pursue one of the greatest comebacks the sport has ever witnessed.
With that… The beauty of baseball lies in its uncertainty — the same game that can break your heart over six months can also provide the most exhilarating single-day drama imaginable. Sunday’s games will determine not just playoff seedings and matchups, but will add new chapters to the rich tapestry of baseball lore.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them!