It has been rumored for a few months now that another MLB lockout is looming following the 2026 season. Around the league, that possibility is starting to affect the way front offices are approaching their superstar players. Teams are weighing long-term investments with uncertainty clouding the future of the collective bargaining agreement. At the same time, players are assessing whether to secure generational wealth now or risk waiting for a free agency period that could fall amid labor strife. This has led to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has agreeing to a contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays, taking himself off the free agent market following this season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and with Kyle Tucker were expected to headline a free agent class this coming winter. The Blue Jays’ slugger had already built a resume filled with highlight-reel home runs, All-Star appearances, and raw production that made him the face of Toronto baseball. Whether or not the Blue Jays were going to be able to afford him—and more importantly, build a team around him—was one of the hottest topics of the offseason. But just a few weeks into the season, the front office made their move, locking in their cornerstone for the next decade and then some.
Toronto’s deal with Guerrero Jr. isn’t just a bold statement—it’s one of the largest contracts in Major League history. The deal is set to pay him $500 million over the next 14 year, which gives Guerrero Jr. the second-largest total contract ever behind Shohei Ohtani’s split two-way deal with the Dodgers. The structure of the deal includes a full no-trade clause, escalators for MVP finishes, and performance bonuses that could push the total value beyond $500 million. For the Blue Jays, this is a massive financial commitment. But for a player who debuted at just 20 years old and is still only 26, the math adds up. Toronto is paying a premium, yes—but they’re also locking up a slugger through his prime and beyond, and possibly for the remainder of his career.
The extension also signals that the Blue Jays are done playing the waiting game. In the past, they’ve lost stars like Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray in free agency while trying to walk the line between contention and payroll discipline. But with Guerrero Jr., they decided to go all in. Over the past three seasons, Vlad Jr. has averaged 26 home runs, 85 RBIs, and a .288 batting average. His 2021 campaign alone, where he hit 48 home runs and finished second in MVP voting, showed what he’s capable of when he’s locked in. While he’s had streaks of inconsistency since then, the upside has always been sky-high. There just aren’t many hitters in the game who can combine Guerrero’s power, plate discipline, and ability to hit for average. The Blue Jays weren’t about to let that walk out the door—not with the potential lockout ahead and not with other big-market teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Giants poised to spend heavily next offseason.
For Guerrero Jr., the decision feels rooted in legacy as much as it is in finances. He’s always expressed his love for playing in Toronto. He’s grown up in the city in a way few players can say they’ve grown into a market. The fanbase embraced him when he arrived as a prospect carrying the weight of a Hall of Fame name, and he delivered. Signing long-term doesn’t just make him one of the highest-paid players in MLB history—it cements his place as a Toronto sports icon, a player who will now be compared more to Joe Carter and Roy Halladay than to his father, at least in Canadian circles.
On the flip side, Kyle Tucker is taking a more measured approach. While Guerrero Jr. is staying put, Tucker is evaluating his options in a very deliberate, personal way. According to multiple reports, Tucker told the Cubs organization following the trade this past winter and again during spring training that he wants to wait until the offseason to talk about staying in Chicago. The reason is not a financial one—it’s about lifestyle. Tucker and his fiancée want the 2025 season to be a trial run of sorts, a year to see if they like living in Chicago before committing long-term.
It’s not the kind of reasoning you usually hear in contract negotiations, especially when one of the biggest markets in the league is on the table. But it’s real. Tucker isn’t the first player to consider quality of life as much as competitive window, clubhouse culture, or contract value, but it’s rare for a star of his caliber to be so open about it. The Cubs, meanwhile, are in a bit of a holding pattern. They want him. They know what kind of player he is, both at the plate and in the field. He’s a left-handed bat with power, plate discipline, and gold glove potential. But for now, they’ll have to wait.
In some ways, Tucker’s situation might be more delicate than Guerrero Jr.’s ever was. The Blue Jays had built around Vlad Jr. for years, promoting Bo Bichette and signing players like Kevin Gausman and George Springer with the assumption that Guerrero Jr. would be there long-term. The Cubs, by contrast, are still in a soft rebuild or retooling phase, depending on how you define it. They have talent, but they’re not fully formed. A player like Tucker could tip the scale and signal a more aggressive approach, especially with young players like Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch getting regular time. But if Tucker decides Chicago isn’t the right fit, the Cubs could end up empty-handed—missing out on both the production and the statement of intent his signing would represent.
It’s not just about what Tucker can do with a bat or how many runs he can save in right field. It’s about sending a message to the league and to the fanbase that Chicago is serious about contending. The last time they committed big money to a free agent on this level, it was for Dansby Swanson. And while Swanson brought leadership and elite defense, the offensive production has been hit or miss. Tucker, on the other hand, is in his prime and has already shown the ability to carry a lineup. If the Cubs are going to vault themselves into the National League elite alongside the Braves, Dodgers, and Phillies, keeping Tucker around feels almost mandatory.
Still, his desire to take the full season to decide makes it hard for the Cubs to plan ahead. If they don’t know what he’s going to do until November or December, they can’t fully commit to other high-dollar targets without risking a redundancy. It’s a bit of a gamble for both sides. Tucker wants to make the best personal and professional decision for his family. The Cubs want clarity so they can execute a strategy.
The looming threat of a lockout in 2026 adds more urgency to all of this. Teams want to get deals done while the terms are still familiar. Players want to get locked in before rules change or the league shuts down for weeks—or months. That’s a big part of why Guerrero Jr. didn’t test the waters. The risk-reward calculus just didn’t make sense, especially with the money being offered upfront and the possibility of market instability looming.
Here’s the thing folks: Even with uncertainty ahead, the market for players like Kyle Tucker isn’t likely to shrink. If anything, Guerrero Jr.’s extension has set the bar even higher. Whether Tucker ends up staying in Chicago or heading to a new team—Houston fans are still hoping for a reunion—he is expected to command a contract in the range of $475 million over ten years. He’s earned it, and his timing is almost perfect.
The only real question is where that money will come from. Will it be the Cubs, ready to make a full commitment to the left-handed bat they believe can anchor their lineup for the next decade? Or will another team, perhaps a West Coast contender with a need in the outfield and a willingness to spend, swoop in with an offer too good to pass up?
With that… We won’t know for a while, and that’s exactly how Tucker wants it. But the longer he waits, the more anticipation builds. Guerrero Jr. is off the board, and the 2025 season has only just begun. Now all eyes are on Kyle Tucker—not just for what he does between the lines, but for what he decides to do once the final pitch of the season is thrown. Whether he stays in Chicago or not, he’s going to get paid. And it’s going to be a contract that sends ripples through a league already bracing for major change.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them!