The news that Munetaka Murakami could reshape the Chicago Cubs’ offseason dominated the conversation when the Japanese star entered the posting process just a week ago. Now, as Tatsuya Imai prepares to follow suit when his posting window opens on November 19, the Cubs face an intriguing scenario that could fundamentally alter how they approach the remainder of their offseason. The arrival of not one, but potentially two elite Japanese talents presents both an opportunity and a puzzle that tests Jed Hoyer’s financial acumen.
Imai represents the kind of elite starting pitcher the Cubs desperately need entering next season. The 27-year-old right-hander posted a 1.92 ERA over 163⅔ innings this season with the Seibu Lions, striking out 178 batters against just 45 walks. His three-time All-Star resume includes a remarkable display of consistency, with ERA figures under 2.50 for four consecutive seasons dating back to 2022. Scott Boras, his agent, has drawn direct comparisons to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, suggesting that Imai has done everything Yamamoto’s done while emphasizing his durability as a particular selling point.
What makes Imai’s upcoming posting particularly intriguing is the timing. Cubs decision-makers have less than 48 hours from the posting window’s opening to solidify their approach to an already crowded offseason. The team will have to navigate the impending deadline for Shota Imanaga’s qualifying offer decision on November 18, and now position themselves to compete for the most sought-after Japanese players in baseball this winter. The infrastructure the Cubs have built over the years — the success with Seiya Suzuki, Yu Darvish, and Imanaga himself — puts Chicago in a uniquely advantageous position to attract international talent.
However, the financial implications of pursuing both Murakami and Imai create a complex equation. Murakami’s deal is projected to exceed $180 million with a posting fee that could approach $20 million. Imai’s contract, meanwhile, is expected to land somewhere in the $140 to $150 million range on a long-term deal. The posting fee for Imai would amount to approximately 20 percent of the first $25 million of his contract, then 17.5 percent of the next $25 million, and 15 percent of any amount over $50 million.
This is where the situation becomes fascinating. If the Cubs manage to acquire both players, they would indeed stretch their payroll significantly. Currently, the Cubs’ 2026 payroll sits around $162 million to $166 million, with the luxury tax threshold set at $244 million. That leaves roughly $78 million to $82 million in theoretical spending room before hitting the first tier of luxury tax penalties.
But here’s the critical insight, acquiring Murakami and Imai wouldn’t prevent the Cubs from bringing Imanaga back on a creative deal structure. Rather than forcing a bidding war that drives up Imanaga’s price on the open market, Hoyer could negotiate a two-year deal that fits within the remaining payroll space. A two-year contract worth $45 to $50 million total for Imanaga would position the Cubs comfortably below the luxury tax threshold while maintaining continuity in the rotation.
The beauty of this scenario lies in the flexibility Imanaga provides. Unlike younger stars commanding market rates, a pitcher who might decline the qualifying offer could be open to a reunion deal that prioritizes team-friendly terms in exchange for job security and the opportunity to pitch for a contender if his market softens. The Cubs wouldn’t need to commit $55 million or more annually to keep him; a more modest two-year arrangement around $22-25 million per year could work for both sides.
Hoyer’s original strategy revolved around using the salary savings from letting Tucker and Imanaga walk to fund ambitious moves elsewhere. But that calculus changes dramatically if acquiring two elite Japanese players requires a different financial approach. Instead of moving resources around through free-agent departures, the Cubs could be looking at a scenario where Murakami and Imai’s contracts consume much of the available payroll, yet the team still has room for Imanaga’s reunion deal without crossing into luxury tax territory.
This would essentially allow the Cubs to thread the needle: acquire Murakami’s left-handed power to replace Tucker’s production, add Imai to bolster the rotation alongside Cade Horton and Justin Steele, and simultaneously bring back Imanaga for stability and continuity. The three moves would cost the Cubs somewhere in the neighborhood of $265-275 million in total salary for 2026, leaving them comfortably under the $244 million first luxury tax threshold.
Of course, this scenario hinges on Imanaga accepting a two-year deal and the Cubs successfully negotiating with both Murakami and Imai amid competition from other teams. Scott Boras isn’t known for accepting discount rates, and teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants will all be active suitors for Imai. Murakami will undoubtedly field offers from multiple contenders as well.
Here’s the thing, folks: The 45-day window which is rumored to begin November 19 for Imai will tell the story. If the Cubs move decisively, they have a genuine opportunity to make a historically significant splash while maintaining financial discipline. Bringing in Murakami and Imai while persuading Imanaga to take a reasonable two-year deal and this could all transform Chicago into a legitimate championship contender next season. The infrastructure is in place, the payroll flexibility exists, and the precedent has been set through previous successful international acquisitions.
With that… The next few weeks represent more than just free agency drama. They represent the possibility of the front office executing a an unforeseen offseason strategy — one that doesn’t require them to cross the luxury tax line while fundamentally upgrading the roster. Whether Hoyer can actually pull it off remains to be seen, but the pieces appear to be in place for an ambitious winter that could finally deliver sustained contention.
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