If you like rookie debates, this year’s Rookie of the Year race is exactly the kind of chaos you root for. Between Cooper Flagg putting up future superstar numbers in Dallas and Kon Knueppel turning Charlotte into a legit watchable team, it feels like the award might come down to how they close the final 20‑plus games rather than anything that’s already happened.
Let’s start with the big picture: almost every major outlet has some version of the same top tier. NBA.com’s Kia Rookie Ladder currently has Kon Knueppel at No. 1, with Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe and Derik Queen right behind him. ESPN’s midseason rookie rankings framed it as Knueppel playing the best ball right now while still acknowledging that Flagg is the heavy betting favorite for the award. Athlon leans the same way, basically saying Flagg is poised to win ROY, but that the class behind him is deeper than it might look at a glance.
Cooper Flagg is the easy starting point because his case checks every traditional Rookie of the Year box. From big numbers to huge usage and he is a clear this guy is the franchise vibe in Dallas. StatMuse has him leading all rookies in scoring at around 20.4 points per game, and he’s adding solid rebounding and playmaking on top of that. NBA.com’s latest ladder lists him at 20.4 points, 6.6 boards and 4.1 assists on the season, which is absurd production for a 19‑year‑old who’s also asked to be a primary defender. ESPN went as far as calling him the most complete all‑around rookie in this class, and that’s not just scout-speak when you watch how many different problems he solves for the Mavs on both ends.
The one thing muddying Flagg’s case right now is availability. He’s been out with a left midfoot sprain, missing All‑Star Weekend and a chunk of February while sitting on 999 total points, which is still second-most among rookies despite eight games missed. Voters usually don’t punish a guy for one injury, but if this lingers and turns into, say, 15 missed games by the end of the year, it opens the door a bit wider for everyone else. NBA.com even leaned into the old best ability is availability line when explaining why he slipped to No. 2 on their latest ladder. The bottom line with Flagg is simple: if he comes back soon and looks like the guy who’s been dropping 30‑pieces regularly, it’s still his award to lose.
Kon Knueppel, though, is absolutely not just a nice story in Charlotte — he has a completely real chance to steal this. The latest NBA.com ladder has him back on top after he reclaimed the No. 1 spot while Flagg sits with the injury. Beyond the rankings, his production is wild. He’s hovering around 18–20 points per game with solid rebounds and assists, and doing it efficiently while bombing threes at high volume. Just this week he broke the 200‑made‑threes barrier and is on pace to pass Keegan Murray’s rookie record of 206, something that previously took rookies an entire season but that Knueppel has reached in barely four months.
What really helps Knueppel is that his production is actually translating to team competence. The Hornets’ point differential has crept up to around break-even, a huge step forward for a team that has basically lived in the lottery for years. ESPN flat-out said he might be underappreciated because he’s in Charlotte and was the No. 4 pick instead of No. 1, but the underlying numbers on his shooting and efficiency scream future All‑Star wing. If he keeps dragging the Hornets toward play‑in territory while Flagg is in and out of the lineup, a chunk of voters are going to point at that and say, That’s the most impactful rookie in the league this year.
After those two, there’s a clear best of the rest group that still matters in this conversation, even if they’re long shots to actually win the trophy. VJ Edgecombe in Philly might have the most complete two‑way profile outside of Flagg — NBA.com notes that no rookie has logged more minutes, and he just walked out of All‑Star Weekend with Rising Stars MVP after putting up 23 points and seven boards across the mini-games. He’s sitting in that 15‑points, 5‑rebounds, 4‑assists neighborhood with solid three‑point shooting and a ton of defensive activity, including 1.5 steals per game and high deflection numbers earlier in the year. The tricky part for his ROY case is that Embiid and the Sixers are chasing bigger things, so some of his value gets framed as great role player instead of centerpiece rookie, even if he’s been a top‑three guy in most ladders all season.
Derik Queen in New Orleans is a different kind of candidate. He is more volatile night‑to‑night, but has some of the highest single‑game peaks of anyone in the rookie class. ESPN highlighted his 33‑point triple‑double against the Spurs as one of the best individual rookie performances of the entire season. NBA.com’s recent ladder has him in that top‑five mix and points out how his rebounding has him near the top of the class, helped by a steady diet of double‑doubles. Athlon’s rankings basically treat Queen as the guy you circle if you’re betting on who might make the biggest Year‑2 leap, but his up‑and‑down efficiency and the Pelicans’ crowded hierarchy probably cap his ROY ceiling this season.
If you’re looking for a true dark horse, Dylan Harper in San Antonio checks that box. USA Today’s rookie power rankings have talked up his impact on winning — he’s posted the best net rating among rookies, and the Spurs are roughly six points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the floor. NBA.com has him sitting in the 10.9‑points, 3.3‑rebounds, 3.6‑assists range with a super positive on/off profile for a title contender. The counting stats probably aren’t flashy enough to win the award, but when voters start splitting hairs on third‑place votes, that kind of efficiency and team context is going to pop.
Here’s the thing, folks: That leaves most sportsbooks and a lot of analysts still leaning towards Flagg to be the Rookie of the Year because volume plus versatility plus No. 1 pick on a marquee franchise is historically a winning formula. But Knueppel now has the narrative momentum: he’s healthy, he’s breaking rookie three‑point records in real time, and he’s dragging a forgotten Hornets team into relevance. Edgecombe, Queen, Harper and a few others are shaping the story more as elite supporting characters than true favorites, but they make this one of the deepest, most fun rookie classes we’ve seen in a while — and that alone is going to make every box score feel like a little referendum on the Rookie of the Year race for the next two months.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them!