You know, watching the Mets right now really takes me back to the Cubs’ wild card chase in 2023 — two teams that had such different trajectories but ended up facing remarkably similar pressure cookers.
Let me paint you a picture of what happened to the Cubs two years ago, because it’s honestly one of the most heartbreaking collapses I’ve witnessed in recent memory. Chicago came into September 2023 feeling absolutely bulletproof. They had a 92.4 percent playoff probability according to FanGraphs — I mean, when you’re at over 90%, you’re basically printing playoff tickets, right? They were sitting pretty, just 1.5 games behind Philadelphia for the top wild card spot, and everything seemed to be falling into place after all those big offseason moves like bringing in Cody Bellinger and Jameson Taillon going into the 2023 season.
But then September hit, and it was like watching a perfectly built house collapse in slow motion. The Cubs didn’t just struggle — they completely unraveled in the most Cubs-like way possible. They blew five leads they held in the 8th inning or later during September alone, which was the most for the franchise in a single month in 50 years. Think about that for a second — 50 years! And it wasn’t just bad luck; they made 12 fielding errors in September, more than any other team in baseball.(Source: ESPN)
What made it even more painful was watching their best players fall apart at the worst possible moments. Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner — all these Gold Glove caliber defenders started making crucial errors that directly led to runs. The most gut-wrenching moment came when Seiya Suzuki misplayed a fly ball in the eighth inning against Atlanta, allowing two runners to score when the Cubs had been leading 6-5. That’s the kind of play that haunts you all winter. (Source: ESPN)
The Cubs finished 83-79 and were officially eliminated on September 30, 2023, when Miami beat Pittsburgh 7-3. All that promise, all that investment, and it came down to a cascade of late-inning collapses and defensive breakdowns when it mattered most.
Now fast-forward to today, and the Mets are living their own version of September hell. The difference is, while the Cubs were riding high and then crashed, the Mets have been slowly bleeding for weeks. They held that final wild card spot since April, but they’ve been gradually sliding, and right now they’re clinging to an 81-77 record with just a one-game lead over both Cincinnati and Arizona.
And here’s where it gets really interesting — or really painful if you’re a Mets fan. They just got absolutely crushed by the Cubs 10-3 tonight, which could have been a disaster except both the Reds and Diamondbacks lost in extra innings, keeping New York one game ahead. Talk about getting bailed out by circumstances beyond your control.
But the pressure is mounting in ways that remind me so much of those 2023 Cubs. The Mets have now made nine errors in their last six games, including a crucial throwing error by Mark Vientos that allowed an unearned run to score against Chicago. Sound familiar? Just like the Cubs’ defensive breakdowns back in 2023, these aren’t just statistics — they’re momentum killers that happen at the absolute worst times.
What’s particularly brutal for the Mets is their tiebreaker situation. The Reds hold the season series advantage over New York, which means the Mets absolutely cannot afford to finish tied with Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Arizona also has the tiebreaker edge over the Mets, though they split their season series so it would likely come down to division records. The Cubs in 2023 faced a similar disadvantage, ultimately losing the tiebreaker to Miami.(Source:CBS Sports)
The schedule comparison is fascinating too. The Cubs in their final week faced teams with mixed motivations — some playing hard, others not so much. The Mets, though, are staring down a brutal final stretch. They’ve got one more game against the Cubs tomorrow, and Chicago isn’t just playing out the string — they’re locked in a fierce battle with San Diego for home field advantage in the wild card round. Then it’s three games in Miami against a Marlins team that’s been surprisingly frisky lately and could absolutely play spoiler.
What’s remarkable is how both teams’ collapses centered around the same fundamental breakdowns: defensive mistakes at crucial moments and an inability to hold leads late in games. The Cubs blew all those eighth-inning leads, and the Mets are making critical errors when they can least afford them. It’s like watching the same tragic play performed by different actors.
The psychological aspects are different, though. The Cubs went from supreme confidence to panic as their massive lead evaporated. The Mets have been fighting for their playoff lives for weeks now, which creates a different kind of pressure — the slow burn versus the sudden shock.
Here’s the thing, folks: Right now, they sit at 81-77 with four games left, holding a precarious one-game lead in a three-team race. Their playoff odds have dropped to about 67 percent, which sounds decent until you remember the Cubs were at 92 percent in early September 2023. Baseball has a cruel way of making those percentages feel meaningless when you’re watching your team’s season slip away one error, one blown lead, one bad bounce at a time. (Source: Yahoo Sports)
With that… The question is whether the Mets can avoid the Cubs’ fate and find a way to stumble across the finish line, or if we’re about to witness another September collapse that will be talked about for years to come.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them!