In the long and storied history of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, no pitcher has ever been handed the ball to start the Midsummer Classic in each of his first two seasons. The feat is simply unprecedented, a statistical and historical void waiting for a talent so singular, so immediately dominant, that it can shatter nearly a century of convention. On Tuesday, that void will be filled by Paul Skenes. When the 23-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates ace takes the mound in Atlanta, he does more than just start a baseball game; he cements a two-year run of individual brilliance that has few, if any, parallels in the modern era.
As Skenes prepares for his second All-Star start, Skenes sports a major-league-best 2.01 ERA, yet his record is a baffling 4-8. This single, glaring statistic encapsulates the central paradox of Paul Skenes’s young career: a story of meteoric, historic individual achievement unfolding against the bleak backdrop of his team’s systemic struggles. His is a narrative of two conflicting realities—the coronation of a baseball king and the plight of his languishing kingdom.
The foundation of Paul Skenes’s dominance, before the triple-digit fastballs and the “splinker” that now baffle Major League hitters, is a different kind of force. His journey has been rooted not on the mound alone, but also in the batter’s box and behind the plate. His time at the United States Air Force Academy revealed a formidable two-way player, a slugging catcher who also possessed a powerful arm. His talent earned national recognition in 2022 when he won the John Olerud Award as the best two-way player in college baseball. Following that season, he made a pivotal decision, transferring to Louisiana State University (LSU) to focus solely on pitching against the elite competition of the Southeastern Conference.
The results of this specialization are immediate and historic. In his single season at LSU in 2023, he had one of the most dominant campaigns in college baseball history, posting a 1.69 ERA and an SEC-record 209 strikeouts. His fastball, which once sat in the mid-90s, now averages 98 mph and routinely touches 102 mph. He led the LSU Tigers to a national championship and is named the Most Outstanding Player of the College World Series. Just weeks later, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected him with the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, drawing comparisons to Stephen Strasburg as the most hyped college pitching prospect in over a decade.
The weight of being a “generational” prospect can crush even the most talented athletes. For Paul Skenes, it has proven to be a fitting mantle. His 2024 rookie season was a whirlwind of shattered records and validated hype. He made his Major League debut on May 11, 2024, and in that first game, he threw 17 pitches which registered 100 mph or faster. He was named the starting pitcher for the National League All-Star team becoming the first-ever No. 1 pick to make the game in the season immediately following his draft year.
His starts have become cultural events in Pittsburgh, appointment viewing for a city desperate for a winner. The phenomenon is dubbed “Skenes Day,” and its effect is tangible. In 2024, the Pirates’ average attendance in his home starts was nearly 5,000 fans higher than for games he does not pitch. He finishes his rookie campaign with a stellar 11-3 record and a 1.96 ERA—the lowest by any rookie pitcher with at least 20 starts since 1920—and was named the National League’s Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year.
His dominance is not merely a product of raw velocity; it is the result of a meticulously crafted arsenal. The foundation is his four-seam fastball, which averages a blistering 98.1 mph. But its genius lies in deception. Skenes throws from an exceptionally low, near-sidearm angle that is unusual for a 6-foot-6 pitcher. This creates a fastball that doesn’t “rise” like a typical four-seamer but instead generates elite horizontal movement. Hitters are conditioned for one trajectory, and Skenes delivers another.
If the fastball is his foundation, the “splinker” is his signature weapon. A hybrid of a sinker and a splitter, it’s thrown with the velocity of a hard sinker (around 95 mph) but has the low spin of a splitter, creating sharp, late, diving movement. It is the perfect complement to his fastball, moving in a completely different direction and preventing hitters from gearing up for velocity alone. Combined with a devastating slider, Skenes possesses a complete arsenal that keeps the world’s best hitters perpetually off-balance.
After his rookie season which rewrote record books, Skenes has been just as good, if not better, this season. In the first half of the season he has posted a league-leading 2.01 ERA and a sterling 0.93 WHIP. Yet, this season is defined by that confounding paradox: his win-loss record stands at 4-8. The reason is painfully simple: a complete failure of run support from the Pittsburgh offense. In 16 of his first 20 starts, the Pirates score four runs or fewer. In one brutal 14-start stretch, he posts a microscopic 1.84 ERA yet is credited with only a single victory. Being named the starting pitcher for his second consecutive All-Star start is be the ultimate validation of his individual greatness, an honor bestowed based on metrics that reflect his true performance and have completely divorced from his team’s record.
The impact of Paul Skenes extends far beyond the pitcher’s mound. He has become a cultural and economic force phenomenon who sells out ballparks not just in Pittsburgh but across the country. More remarkably, he embraces the role of a clubhouse leader. Back in March Skenes told Sports Illustrated: “I think we owe something to the city. We owe a lot to the city. It’s our job to go out and win for the city because this is bigger than all of us.” Around the same time in an interview with Jonanthan Vankin of Heavy Sports he referenced the Pirates’ last brief period of success, a Wild Card game appearance, and dismisses it. “The fact that that’s a Golden Era in recent Pirates baseball, that needs to change.”
Here’s the thing, folks: His success, mixed with the team’s struggles, creates a fatalistic narrative about his future. Speculation is that he will eventually be traded, following the well-worn path of past Pirates stars who found championship success only after leaving Pittsburgh. Fan commentary reflects a deep-seated cynicism, with some comparing Skenes to a character in The Shawshank Redemption: “Keeps his head up, says the right thing, does the right thing. He knows his future is in a much brighter place and will escape, but, for now he’s stuck.”
With that… This is the ultimate paradox of the Skenes effect: his brilliance brings hope, but it also brings a ticking clock. The questions surrounding him are no longer about his talent. The question is what the legacy of that generational talent will be. Will it be defined by leading the Pirates, against all odds, back to relevance? Or will it be defined by the seemingly inevitable path of his predecessors, where ultimate success is only found after leaving the city that first embraced him as its own? The clock is ticking, and all of baseball is watching.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them!