The NFL is gifting us the joy–and confusion–of no less than half of its Week 17 schedule being scheduled in stand-alone national windows, spread out over five different days and five different networks/platforms. And since two of the remaining eight games involve the Giants and Jets, one could reasonably argue that the actual proportion of games that actually qualify as NFL-quality is diminished by at least two.
But it could have been worse, had a few AFC teams on the brink of complete elimination had taken Week 16 Ls. But fortunately for the league and we fans, they actually all came up with Ws, and at least for now still qualify for the pulse of legitimate listing of being “in the hunt”.
That said, it’s a tribute to the detail work of the reporters who are covering these teams with nary a pulse to spell out exactly how narrow a path to mid-January they have.
The INDIANAPOLIS STAR’s Nat Newell laid out how the Colts could advance in the wake of their conquest of the woeful Tennessee Titans:
The Colts‘ playoff odds are at 19% according to the New York Times, and that seems high. Here is what to know:\
The Colts are out of the playoffs if they lose to the Giants next week
This is pretty straightforward. If the Colts lose, the most games they can win this season is 8.
The Colts can make the playoffs if they win out, Chargers lose out
If the Colts win out against the Giants and Jaguars, they’ll be 9-8. If the Chargers lose to the Raiders and Patriots. The Colts would win the conference record tiebreaker if they are the only two teams with nine wins.
There are multiple-team scenarios involving Los Angeles but the Colts will make the playoffs if these two scenarios happen.
How the Colts can make the playoffs if they win out and the Broncos lose out
If the Broncos lose to Cincinnati and Kansas City and the Colts win out, the Colts make the playoffs if Cincinnati or Miami win out or the Chargers lose out. Cincinnati and Miami won Sunday.
The Colts lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Denver if its just those two teams.
THE MIAMI HERALD’s Barry Jackson was similarly tasked for his readership:
The Dolphins kept their playoff hopes alive with a 29-17 win against the 49ers on Sunday, and they’re going to get at least some measure of clarity before they take the field next Sunday at Cleveland (4:05 p.m., CBS).
The Dolphins will make the playoffs if they win out and one of these three other things happening:
Two Chargers losses and two Denver losses. The Chargers play at New England and at Las Vegas. The Broncos play at Cincinnati and home against Kansas City.
▪ Two Denver losses and one Indianapolis loss. The Colts have an easy schedule: at the Giants and home against Jacksonville. But the Colts, who have won two in a row, haven’t won three in a row all season.
▪ Two Chargers losses and one Indianapolis loss.
Miami cannot control its own destiny heading into Sunday’s game at Cleveland.
But the Dolphins could be eliminated from playoff contention before the Cleveland game because the Chargers and Broncos play Saturday and the Colts play at 1 p.m. Sunday.
If the Chargers win at New England at 1 p.m. Saturday and the Broncos win at Cincinnati at 4:30 p.m. Saturday, the Dolphins would be eliminated from playoff contention.
But if you think that’s nuts, consider what CBS SPORTS’ John Breech meticulously laid out after the Bengals won their third consecutive game, a far closer-than-expected conquest of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Browns:
Sure, the Bengals need a Christmas miracle to make the postseason, but it can happen if a few things go their way(.)
1. Bengals have to win out
The Bengals have no margin for error, which means they have to go 2-0 over the final two weeks of the season, and here’s who they’ll be playing:
Week 17: vs. Broncos
Week 18: at Steelers
The win over the Browns has now set up a showdown with the Broncos in Week 17. The advantage for the Bengals in that game is that it’s at home. As for Week 18, the Bengals will have to beat the Steelers on the road if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs.
2. Broncos have to lose out
If Denver gets to 10 wins, the Bengals won’t be able to make the playoffs, so Cincinnati will need the Broncos to lose their final two games. The Bengals did get some help from the Chargers, who beat the Broncos 34-27 on Thursday night.
Let’s take a look at Denver’s schedule:
Week 17: at Bengals
Week 18: vs. Chiefs
If the Broncos lose to the Bengals in Week 17, that will make things incredibly interesting. That being said, if the Chiefs clinch the top seed in the AFC before Week 18, then they’ll almost certainly be benching their starters for their finale against Denver. However, with Patrick Mahomes banged up, it’s certainly possible that Kansas City could lose on Christmas to the Steelers, and if that happens, the Chiefs would probably have to play their starters in Week 18.
3. Dolphins lose at least one more game
If the Bengals want to make the playoffs, the Dolphins can’t reach nine wins, and after beating the 49ers on Sunday, that scenario is becoming more and more likely. Here’s a look at the Dolphins’ final two games:
Week 17: at Browns
Week 18: at Jets
Although the Browns and Jets have been bad this year, the Dolphins have lost 12 straight games when the temperature is under 40 degrees, and it’s almost certainly going to be under 40 degrees when they travel to Cleveland and New York to end the season, so a loss in one of those two games wouldn’t be totally shocking.
4. Colts lose at least one more game
If the Bengals want to make the playoffs, the Colts, who beat the Titans in Week 16, also can’t reach nine wins, but unlike the Dolphins, Indy actually has a very favorable schedule down the stretch. Here’s a look at their final two games:
Week 17: at Giants
Week 18: vs. Jaguars
This is probably the most unrealistic scenario when it comes to the Bengals’ playoff chances. The Colts will be favored in their final two games, so Cincinnati will need someone to pull off an upset. The Colts have struggled against divisional opponents this year, going 2-3, so an upset win by Jacksonville isn’t out of the question. The Colts have also lost of their past six games against the Jags.
Gamblers would consider these parlays sucker bets. Most fans would consider this grasping at straws.
But it’s nearly Christmas, so some fans consider these scenarios indicative of hope springing eternal. Christmas, as in Lloyd.
Courage…