Note: Today’s post was inspired many conversations I’ve had with my fellow writer Gaurav Garg the last few years and the 9th inning Friday’s Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals game when it appeared Cubs relief pitcher Drew Smyly would blow the save after coming into the game in for Tyson Miller who left two runners on base.
The save, hold, and blown save statistics have long been staples in how baseball evaluates its relief pitchers. While all three stats are well-known, it’s the hold and blown save stats that stir the most controversy in today’s game. These numbers are entrenched in our understanding of late-game heroics, but there’s a debate brewing amongst some fans about whether they truly represent a pitcher’s value and impact. Some argue that the blown save stat should be abolished to reshape the role of a closer, while others believe that simply removing the hold stat could bring more attention to the elite relief pitchers who might not get the spotlight they deserve. This conversation is crucial, especially considering how deeply ingrained these roles are in the fabric of baseball.
Let’s start with the save statistic, the most familiar and, perhaps, the least controversial of the three. A save is awarded to a relief pitcher who finishes a game for the winning team under certain conditions, such as entering with a lead of three runs or fewer or coming into the game with the tying run either on base, at bat, or on deck. Since its introduction in 1969, the save stat has been the defining measure of a closer’s effectiveness. It has given baseball some of its most iconic players, from Mariano Rivera to Trevor Hoffman.
However, the closer role, as it exists today, is largely shaped by the save rule. This has led to the specialization of the ninth inning, where teams often reserve their best reliever for the final three outs of a game, regardless of the situation earlier. While the save stat itself is widely accepted, it’s the hold and blown save stats that fuel much of the controversy. Some fans who are more critical believe that these stats can be misleading and may even warp bullpen management strategies.
The hold, introduced in the 1980s, is awarded to a reliever who enters the game in a save situation, records at least one out, and leaves with the lead intact. The idea behind the stat was to give recognition to middle relievers who often work in high-leverage situations before the closer enters. But many see the hold as a flawed measure of success. It can be awarded for just a single out, sometimes against weaker hitters, which might not fully reflect a reliever’s true impact on the game. Some argue that this stat dilutes the importance of elite relief pitching by giving too much weight to minimal contributions.
The blown save, on the other hand, is often viewed as one of the most frustrating stats for relievers. It penalizes a pitcher who allows the tying or go-ahead run to score, even if the situation was inherited from another pitcher. This stat can create a skewed perception of a reliever’s performance, especially when considering the unpredictability of situations involving inherited runners. Blown saves can be misleading and can unfairly tarnish a pitcher’s record, regardless of the broader context.
Imagine a scenario where both the hold and blown save stats are removed. In theory, this could eliminate the statistical significance of certain roles, like that of the closer, freeing managers to use their best relievers in the most critical situations, regardless of the inning. Without the pressure to accumulate holds or avoid blown saves, managers might be more inclined to bring in their top arms earlier in the game when the opposing team’s most dangerous hitters are up. This could lead to a more even distribution of high-leverage situations among a team’s relief corps, rather than concentrating them on a single closer.
But the reality is that the closer role is more than just a product of these statistics. It’s a position with a distinct identity in baseball culture. Closers are often viewed as the most mentally tough, ice-in-the-veins pitchers who can handle the intense pressure of sealing a victory. Their entrance music, like Rivera’s “Enter Sandman,” adds to the drama and spectacle of the final three outs. Even if the hold and blown save stats were abolished, the need for a pitcher who can handle the mental and emotional demands of the ninth inning wouldn’t disappear.
Moreover, the closer role has a significant financial impact. Closers, especially those with a high number of saves, are among the highest-paid relievers in the game. The save statistic is often a key component in arbitration cases and contract negotiations, making it a crucial part of a pitcher’s career earnings. Eliminating the hold and blown save stats would likely face resistance from both players and agents who see these numbers as pathways to lucrative contracts. Teams, too, might be hesitant to abolish stats that have become benchmarks for success in the late innings.
Even if we were to remove the hold and blown save statistics, the role of the closer isn’t likely to disappear. The ninth inning will always carry a unique pressure, and teams will still need someone who can handle that spotlight. The argument against the blown save statistic, in particular, is compelling in its own right. The stat is often seen as unfair to relievers who inherit runners in tight situations, only to be penalized if those runners score, even if the pitcher ultimately gets out of the inning. But this stat, too, adds to the drama of the game. It provides a counterbalance to the save, showing that not every reliever is infallible and that the game can turn in an instant.
Instead of abolishing these stats entirely, some fans believe that only the blown save statistic should be abolished. Without the blown save, more attention could be focused on top-tier relievers who might not fit the traditional closer mold but are nonetheless crucial to their teams’ success. These pitchers often work in the toughest spots, facing the best hitters with the game on the line, yet some relief pitchers don’t get the same recognition they deserve because they accumulate blown saves due to inheriting runners left on base by their teammates. Without the blown save, the emphasis might shift to metrics like ERA, WHIP, or even newer advanced stats like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and WPA (Win Probability Added), which provide a more comprehensive view of a reliever’s impact on the game.
One potential benefit of this shift could be a greater appreciation for relievers who excel in non-save situations. These pitchers often go unnoticed, but they can be just as valuable, if not more so, than the traditional closer. Without the blown save stat, fans and analysts might pay more attention to the overall effectiveness of relievers, rather than just their ability to get outs in the eighth inning. This could lead to a more nuanced understanding of bullpen dynamics and the different roles that relievers play.
However, getting rid of the blown save statistic is not without its challenges. Like the save, the blown save has become ingrained in how we evaluate relievers. Middle relievers and setup men, who often accumulate blown saves, would lose a key measure of their lack success, which impacts their market value. In an era where advanced stats are becoming increasingly important, some might argue that the blown still serves a purpose by highlighting relievers who consistently perform poorly in high-leverage situations.
It’s also worth noting that the blown save stat, while relatively obscure compared to the save, has its place in the game. It provides a way to measure the effectiveness of relievers who come in before the closer, and it can be a useful tool for managers to evaluate their bullpen options. For fans, it adds another layer of strategy and nuance to the game, giving them more insight into the decisions that managers make during close games.
Despite these arguments, the idea of removing the blown save stat does have merit, especially in today’s game where advanced metrics are becoming more prevalent. Teams would have to use more advanced metrics such as the FIP and WPA stats to find a setup man who can consistently get holds. These two stats would also allow teams to look for more versatile relievers who can pitch multiple innings or handle different situations. This could lead to more creative bullpen usage and a deeper understanding of what makes a reliever truly valuable.
At the end of the day, the debate over the save, hold, and blown save statistics is a reflection of larger conversations happening in baseball about how fans evaluate players and their contributions to the game. The closer role, for better or worse, is a product of the save stat, and as long as that stat remains, the closer will continue to be a key figure in the late innings. Removing the blown save stats might change the way fans view bullpen usage, but it’s unlikely to eliminate the need for a pitcher who can handle the unique pressures of the ninth inning.
Baseball is a sport steeped in tradition, and statistics like the save, hold, and blown save have become part of the game’s fabric. Changing or eliminating these stats would require a fundamental shift in how we think about pitching and bullpen management. While it’s an intriguing idea, it’s one that would likely face significant resistance from players and managers alike. After all, the drama of the ninth inning is part of what makes baseball so compelling, and the closer, with all the pressure and expectations that come with the role, is a big part of that drama.
Even if the blown save stat were removed, it’s unlikely to drastically change how teams use their bullpens. The ninth inning will always be a special moment in the game, and teams will continue to look for pitchers who can thrive in that high-pressure environment. Whether it’s called a save or something else, the need for a pitcher who can close out games will remain, and with it, the role of the closer.
Here’s the thing folks: The discussion around removing the blown save stat is a fascinating one that touches on many aspects of the game, from bullpen management to player evaluation. While there are compelling arguments for removing it, doing so would likely have far-reaching implications for how the game is played and understood. The closer role, in particular, is so deeply ingrained in baseball’s culture and strategy that it’s hard to imagine a world without it.
With that… elite relief pitching will always be a key part of the game and the ninth inning will always hold a special place in the hearts of baseball fans.
If you cannot play with them, then root for them.